| Citation: | TIAN Wanli, WU Zhongguang, LI Juan, HU Shaohong, SUN Xiaojun. An Analysis of Highway-traffic Safety Based on Dynamic Risk Saturation[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2021, 39(5): 12-18, 42. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.05.002
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The study proposes a dynamic risk saturation theory and constructs a dynamic risk saturation model and a calculation method to reflect the safety operation status of highways. On the basis of the driving behavior of vehicles under different traffic saturation of the road section and the constraint of keeping the road section traffic safety, the calculation method of the average minimum safe headway of the road section takes into account the influence of vehicle speed changes and special weather conditions, such as vehicle speed and foggy in the two driving states of car-following and lane-changing. The established conversion relationship between safe headway and safe flow, is used to obtain the safe flow of road sections under different driving conditions. Under the switching thresholds of different driving states, the ratio of the actual traffic flow to the safe flow of the road section is calculated to obtain the dynamic risk saturation values for road sections. Taking a road network of a reconstructed and expanded section of the G3 expressway as a case study, the study calculates the dynamic risk saturation values of each section in the road network under different switching thresholds. It can be concluded that with the traffic saturation increases, the dynamic risk saturation shows a steady pattern of first increasing and then decreasing. It reaches the maximum in lane-changing driving state and starts to decrease in the following driving state, which is consistent with the existing analysis of traffic safety states. Compared with the factor of traffic saturation, dynamic risk saturation can better indicate the pattern of dynamic changes in traffic safety of highway sections.
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